The US and Israeli attack on Iran has been all over the news in the past few days. Particularly on social media, where videos showing violent bombings have been travelling quickly and making thousands of views. The conflict that has started between these nations is having a big impact on the Middle East, with raids targeting countries not directly involved in the fighting, such as Bahrain, Kuwait, and the UAE, due to the presence of US military bases in them. On a global scale, all this chaos has led to the shut down of major airports such as that of Dubai, and the rise of a terrifying question: Will this be the start of a global conflict?
To fully understand what is happening, it is important to see the big picture, and to do this, we have to rewind a bit: in fact, the tensions between the US and Iran are rooted in politics, and further enhanced by religious differences – the same applies to the Israel-Iran situation.
Now, to contextualize religion in our current scenario, we have to note that Iran is a country of predominantly Shia Muslims, governed by a theocratic autocracy. Israel is, instead, a country with a high predominance of Jewish citizens, and the USA, despite being a melting pot of countless religions, is home to a Christian majority. Other countries that have been attacked less directly by Iran, such as the UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait, also have religions that clash with Shiism, as they all are predominantly Sunni Muslim countries. Religious differences are important to note, as clashes in faith are common justifications of conflict between nations with opposing beliefs. This goes for all those involved in the current war, which have a history of mixing religious beliefs with politics even when the two do not intertwine naturally with one another. So to summarize, the respective subdivision of ethnic groups in religious majorities and minorities in the Middle East has been a reason for conflict in the past; members of these groups have had various tensions due to differing beliefs on how to worship God and the correct interpretation of religious texts.
While religious differences provide context, the immediate reason for the sudden escalation can be considered a political battle for dominance and nuclear power.
The huge escalation of the war on February 28 marked the transition from the long-standing political tensions and indirect conflicts into a direct military confrontation. The United States and Israel launched an air-led operation known as “Operation Epic Fury”, with the goal of inducing regime change in Iran, by killing supreme leader Khamenei, and targeting other specific points in the middle east.
Currently in the middle of the operation, the political stakes are high. Iran presents an imposing threat to Israel, especially because of its large nuclear stash. For the US, the goal is to neutralize what they call the “world’s number one state sponsor of terror” – Iran. However, Iran has retaliated by targeting US bases across the Gulf, causing the closure of important locations, such as Dubai International Airport, and disrupting global oil supplies via the Strait of Hormuz.
Many are wondering what is really going through these politicians’ minds. Focusing on the US, President Donald Trump has framed the conflict as a “necessary action to end a 47-year-old rivalry”. In a phone interview following the strike, Trump signaled that the US had already achieved its primary goals, though he warned that the pressure would not let up until the Iranian government was completely overhauled.
Addressing the media on March 11th, Trump stated:
“You never like to say too early you won. We won. In the first hour it was over… They’ve got no navy, they’ve got no air force, they’ve got no anti-aircraft… and they better not try anything cute or it’s going to be the end of that country.”. This overly confident opinion has been considered both alarming and naive by politicians all over the world.
Despite the barrier of confidence shown by the US, the situation remains precarious. While, together with Israel, the country claims to have neutralized Iran’s military, the latter still benefits from an “Axis of Resistance”: a network of allies including Hezbollah in Lebanon. The axis continues to launch rockets, keeping the region in a state of high alert, and has become the reason for many Israeli raids on the countries in the Gulf.
As we watch violence dominate the ‘centre’ of the world – the biggest trade crossroads on the Earth – our questions about the extent of this conflict remain unanswered. For now, the Middle East is at its most dangerous point in decades, and we’ll have to wait to see how this situation unfolds.
